Bitcoin Revival 100k Rally Possible?
Bitcoin comes back to life does data support a rally to 100k and higher. This deep dive explores the potential for a significant Bitcoin price surge, examining historical trends, fundamental analysis, technical indicators, macroeconomic factors, on-chain data, community sentiment, potential catalysts, and illustrative case studies. We’ll unpack the data to see if a move to 100k and beyond is truly justified.
From examining Bitcoin’s price history and major events that shaped its trajectory to analyzing the underlying technology and comparing it to other cryptocurrencies, this comprehensive analysis explores the intricate factors driving Bitcoin’s price. We’ll delve into technical indicators, macroeconomic forces, and on-chain data to understand the current market landscape and its potential implications for future price movements. Ultimately, the question remains: does the data support a 100k+ Bitcoin rally?
Historical Context of Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s journey has been a rollercoaster, marked by dramatic price swings and significant market events. Understanding this history is crucial for assessing potential future trends and evaluating the current narrative surrounding a potential surge to $100,000 or higher. The volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market requires a deep dive into past performance to analyze potential patterns.
Bitcoin’s Price Fluctuations
Bitcoin’s price has experienced substantial fluctuations since its inception. Early adoption and technological advancements were intertwined with price volatility. The price trajectory has been characterized by periods of rapid growth followed by sharp declines, highlighting the inherent risks and opportunities within the cryptocurrency market.
Major Price Peaks and Troughs
Several significant price peaks and troughs have shaped Bitcoin’s history. These events, often intertwined with broader market trends, provide valuable insights into the factors driving price changes. Understanding these events is essential for evaluating the current market conditions.
| Date | Price (USD) | Significant Events |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | $0.003 | Early adoption, limited trading volume. |
| 2017 | $20,000 | Increased mainstream media coverage, institutional interest, regulatory scrutiny. |
| 2020 | $29,000 | Widespread adoption by institutional investors, increased trading volume, positive market sentiment. |
| 2022 | $17,000 | Crypto winter, regulatory uncertainty, and global macroeconomic factors. |
| 2023 | $26,000 | Mixed market signals, ongoing regulatory discussions, and macroeconomic volatility. |
Influencing Market Trends
Several market trends have significantly impacted Bitcoin’s price movements. These include, but are not limited to, regulatory changes, media coverage, and macroeconomic factors. The influence of these factors is not always linear or predictable, adding another layer of complexity to the market analysis.
- Regulatory Scrutiny: Government regulations concerning cryptocurrencies can have a substantial impact on the price. Positive or negative regulations influence market sentiment and trading volume. For instance, the Chinese government’s ban on crypto mining and trading in 2021 had a substantial impact on the global Bitcoin market.
- Media Coverage: Increased media attention often correlates with heightened market activity. This increased visibility can lead to both positive and negative sentiment, affecting the price.
- Institutional Adoption: The involvement of institutional investors can significantly affect market sentiment and volume. This can lead to price increases or decreases depending on investor confidence.
- Technological Advancements: Improvements in blockchain technology, transaction speeds, or scalability can positively influence investor sentiment and the overall price of Bitcoin.
Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin: Bitcoin Comes Back To Life Does Data Support A Rally To 100k And Higher
Bitcoin’s value isn’t solely determined by market speculation; its underlying principles and technological mechanisms play a crucial role. Understanding these fundamentals is essential for assessing its potential future trajectory. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin, coupled with its scarcity, has been a key driver of its value. The interplay of supply and demand, coupled with technological advancements, significantly shapes its trajectory.Bitcoin’s value is intrinsically linked to its underlying technology, a complex system of cryptography and distributed ledger technology.
Bitcoin’s recent resurgence has got me thinking – does the data truly support a potential rally back to $100,000? While the crypto world buzzes with this possibility, it’s worth considering the broader landscape. For example, has Ethereum lost its crown? Experts are weighing in on its future here , and their insights might offer clues about the overall crypto market health.
Ultimately, whether Bitcoin can hit that milestone depends on a complex interplay of factors, including market sentiment and regulatory clarity.
This intricate framework underpins its functionality and creates a unique environment for its operation. Understanding these underlying principles allows for a more informed evaluation of Bitcoin’s potential.
Bitcoin’s Underlying Principles
Bitcoin operates on a decentralized network, with no single entity controlling it. This distributed nature is a key differentiator, fostering trust and security through cryptographic processes. The use of cryptography ensures the security and integrity of transactions, safeguarding against fraudulent activities.
Bitcoin’s Supply and Demand Dynamics
Bitcoin’s supply is limited to 21 million coins. This scarcity, combined with increasing demand, contributes to its value appreciation. The supply mechanism is inherent to the Bitcoin protocol, a fundamental characteristic that influences its price dynamics. The interplay of supply and demand, influenced by market sentiment and adoption, plays a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.
A growing number of users and businesses accepting Bitcoin increases demand, which, in turn, can drive the price up. Conversely, a lack of adoption or concerns about security can depress demand and, consequently, the price.
Comparison with Other Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin’s fundamental characteristics distinguish it from other cryptocurrencies. While other cryptocurrencies may offer alternative features or functionalities, Bitcoin’s pioneering role and established market presence are significant factors influencing its value proposition. The longevity of Bitcoin’s network and its robust security protocols further differentiate it from newer, less established cryptocurrencies.
Technical Differences and Similarities
| Feature | Bitcoin | Ethereum | Solana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underlying Technology | Blockchain; cryptographic hash function | Blockchain; smart contract functionality | Blockchain; high-throughput architecture |
| Use Cases | Digital currency; peer-to-peer payments | Decentralized applications (dApps); tokenization | High-throughput transactions; decentralized finance (DeFi) |
| Security | Strong cryptographic security; decentralized network | Strong cryptographic security; smart contract security | Robust security architecture; consensus mechanisms |
| Scalability | Relatively lower transaction throughput | Scalability through layer-2 solutions | High transaction throughput |
The table above highlights some key technical differences and similarities between Bitcoin and other prominent cryptocurrencies. These characteristics influence their individual use cases and market positioning. The table illustrates the contrasting approaches of these projects in achieving decentralized transactions and financial applications. Understanding these differences is critical for evaluating the potential of each cryptocurrency in the evolving crypto landscape.
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical analysis provides a framework for interpreting price charts and identifying potential trading opportunities. By studying past price movements, volume, and other indicators, analysts aim to predict future price action. While not foolproof, technical analysis can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential trends.Understanding Bitcoin’s technical indicators is crucial for evaluating its current trajectory and potential for a rally to $100,000 or higher.
This analysis delves into key indicators, recent price charts, and the application of technical tools to anticipate price movements.
Key Technical Indicators
Technical analysis relies on various indicators to assess market trends. Moving averages, volume, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) are crucial components in understanding Bitcoin’s price dynamics. These indicators, when analyzed together, provide a comprehensive picture of the market’s current state and potential future directions.
- Moving Averages (MA): Moving averages smooth out price fluctuations, revealing the underlying trend. Short-term moving averages react quickly to price changes, while long-term averages provide a broader perspective on the trend’s direction. A bullish trend is often indicated by price consistently moving above its moving averages.
- Volume: Trading volume reflects the intensity of buying and selling activity. High volume during price increases suggests strong buyer interest, while low volume during price drops can signal reduced participation in the market. Volume data can validate the significance of price movements.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. A reading above 70 often suggests an asset is overbought, potentially indicating a price correction, while a reading below 30 may suggest an asset is oversold, potentially indicating a price rebound.
Bitcoin’s Recent Price Charts
Examining Bitcoin’s recent price charts provides insight into potential support and resistance levels. Support levels are price points where the price is likely to find buyers, while resistance levels are price points where the price is likely to find sellers. Identifying these levels can help anticipate price movements. For instance, if the price breaks through a significant resistance level, it could signal a potential upward trend.
- Support and Resistance Levels: Historical price charts often reveal significant support and resistance levels. These levels represent areas where price has previously reversed, indicating potential areas of price support or resistance. Analyzing these points can help anticipate where the price might react to, either upwards or downwards.
- Breakouts and Breakdowns: A breakout occurs when the price moves above a resistance level, suggesting a potential upward trend. Conversely, a breakdown occurs when the price moves below a support level, signaling a potential downward trend. These events can be pivotal in forecasting future price movements.
Applying Technical Analysis Tools
Various technical analysis tools, such as trend lines, candlestick patterns, and Fibonacci retracements, can help anticipate price movements. These tools can identify potential turning points and support/resistance areas, thereby aiding in informed trading decisions.
- Trend Lines: Trend lines connect successive highs or lows on a price chart, revealing the overall direction of the trend. Upward-sloping trend lines indicate an upward trend, while downward-sloping lines suggest a downward trend.
Technical Indicators and Interpretation
The following table summarizes key technical indicators and their interpretations in the context of a potential Bitcoin rally:
| Indicator | Interpretation (Bullish Rally to 100k+) |
|---|---|
| Moving Averages (200-day MA above current price) | Signifies sustained upward momentum |
| Volume (High volume above resistance levels) | Strong buyer interest supporting the rally |
| RSI (Above 50, trending upwards) | Positive market sentiment, indicating continued upward movement |
Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s price isn’t solely determined by technical indicators or community sentiment. A significant influence comes from global macroeconomic forces. Understanding these factors is crucial for evaluating the potential for a Bitcoin price rally, as they can create both opportunities and headwinds. The interplay between interest rates, inflation, and broader economic events often dictates the cryptocurrency market’s trajectory.Macroeconomic conditions, such as fluctuating interest rates and inflation, can significantly impact the cryptocurrency market.
This is because Bitcoin, as a digital asset, often serves as a hedge against traditional financial instability. When traditional markets experience turmoil, investors may seek refuge in Bitcoin, leading to price appreciation. Conversely, a stable and prosperous traditional market might not offer the same incentive for investors to enter the cryptocurrency space, potentially slowing or even depressing Bitcoin’s price.
Impact of Global Economic Events
Global economic events, ranging from geopolitical tensions to natural disasters, can have a profound effect on Bitcoin’s price. Uncertainty and fear often drive investors towards safe-haven assets, including Bitcoin. The 2008 financial crisis, for instance, saw a surge in Bitcoin’s value as investors sought alternatives to traditional banking systems. Similarly, periods of high political instability or economic uncertainty often lead to increased demand for Bitcoin as a store of value and a potential hedge against economic collapse.
Influence of Interest Rate Policies
Interest rate policies implemented by central banks worldwide play a crucial role in the cryptocurrency market. When central banks lower interest rates, it often leads to increased liquidity in the financial system. This increased liquidity can potentially stimulate investment in riskier assets like Bitcoin, potentially pushing prices upward. Conversely, rising interest rates can make Bitcoin appear less attractive compared to traditional interest-bearing assets, leading to a decrease in demand and potentially a downward pressure on prices.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate adjustments in the United States, for example, have demonstrably influenced Bitcoin’s price action in the past.
Influence of Inflation Rates
Inflation rates directly affect the purchasing power of money. High inflation erodes the value of fiat currencies, potentially making Bitcoin a more attractive store of value. Investors might see Bitcoin as a means to preserve their wealth against the erosion of purchasing power caused by inflation. Historical data shows a correlation between periods of high inflation and Bitcoin price appreciation, although this correlation isn’t always consistent or predictable.
Correlation with Other Financial Markets
Bitcoin’s price often displays correlations with other financial markets. A strong correlation with the stock market, for example, could suggest that Bitcoin’s price is influenced by broader market sentiment. However, Bitcoin’s correlation with other assets isn’t always consistent, and periods of market divergence are common. Analyzing these correlations can provide valuable insights into the market’s sentiment and potential price movements.
For example, periods of stock market volatility may be accompanied by a similar reaction in the Bitcoin market.
Recent Macroeconomic Events and Potential Impact
Recent macroeconomic events, such as rising inflation and ongoing geopolitical tensions, have had varying effects on Bitcoin. Increased inflation has fueled interest in Bitcoin as a potential hedge against currency devaluation. Geopolitical uncertainty has also contributed to the volatility in the market. These factors combined with the evolving relationship between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets make it difficult to predict the future price movements of Bitcoin.
The recent surge in interest rates by various central banks worldwide has, for instance, created a considerable amount of uncertainty in the market, prompting a mixed reaction in the Bitcoin market.
On-Chain Data Analysis
On-chain data provides a granular view of Bitcoin’s underlying activity, offering insights beyond price fluctuations. Examining transaction patterns, network activity, and address usage can reveal crucial information about market sentiment and potential future price movements. This analysis goes beyond the surface-level price charts to delve into the actual mechanics driving Bitcoin’s ecosystem.Analyzing on-chain metrics is crucial for understanding the health and vitality of the Bitcoin network.
Bitcoin’s recent resurgence has got me wondering – does the data actually support a potential rally back to $100,000 and beyond? While the future remains uncertain, recent developments like Coreweave striking a deal with OpenAI to provide AI infrastructure ( coreweave strikes deal openai deliver ai infrastructure ) might be a contributing factor, hinting at potential future adoption and, consequently, a possible boost for the cryptocurrency market.
So, the question remains, will the data support this optimistic outlook for Bitcoin?
Strong on-chain signals, such as increased transaction volume and network activity, often precede price rallies. Conversely, weak signals can be a warning sign of potential price downturns.
Key Metrics from Bitcoin’s Transaction History
Bitcoin’s transaction history reveals important insights into market activity. Several key metrics provide valuable information about the network’s health and potential future direction. These metrics help us understand the demand and supply dynamics within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
- Transaction Volume: The total value of transactions processed on the Bitcoin network during a specific period. Higher transaction volume generally suggests increased activity and potentially higher demand for Bitcoin.
- Network Hash Rate: A measure of the combined computing power of Bitcoin miners. A higher hash rate indicates greater security and network resilience, potentially suggesting a more robust and stable ecosystem.
- Active Addresses: The number of unique Bitcoin addresses involved in transactions. An increase in active addresses can signal new participation in the network, indicating potential growth and adoption.
Significance of Transaction Volume, Network Hash Rate, and Active Addresses
These metrics are interconnected and provide a comprehensive view of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Increased transaction volume, combined with a high network hash rate and a surge in active addresses, could signal a bullish trend and a potential rally. Conversely, declining metrics could indicate a bearish trend. For example, during periods of market uncertainty, transaction volume and active addresses might decrease, signaling a potential pullback.
Illustrative Example: 2017 Bitcoin Bull Run
The 2017 Bitcoin bull run saw a significant increase in all three key metrics. This coincided with a surge in interest and adoption, making the case that on-chain metrics can be leading indicators of price movements.
On-Chain Metrics Over Time
The table below illustrates a hypothetical snapshot of on-chain metrics for Bitcoin over a 6-month period. This is not actual data, but represents the types of patterns and trends one might analyze.
| Date | Transaction Volume (USD) | Network Hash Rate (TH/s) | Active Addresses |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-01 | 500,000,000 | 100 | 100,000 |
| 2024-02-01 | 750,000,000 | 120 | 120,000 |
| 2024-03-01 | 1,000,000,000 | 150 | 150,000 |
| 2024-04-01 | 1,250,000,000 | 180 | 180,000 |
| 2024-05-01 | 1,500,000,000 | 200 | 200,000 |
| 2024-06-01 | 1,750,000,000 | 220 | 220,000 |
Community Sentiment and Market Perception
The cryptocurrency community’s sentiment towards Bitcoin plays a significant role in price fluctuations. Beyond technical and fundamental analysis, the collective emotional response to news, social media trends, and influential voices often shapes market perception. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for assessing the potential for a Bitcoin rally.
Current Sentiment Surrounding Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s current sentiment within the cryptocurrency community is a complex mix of cautious optimism and lingering skepticism. While some enthusiasts anticipate a return to previous highs, a significant portion of the community remains wary, citing past market corrections and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This nuanced sentiment often translates into fluctuating trading activity and varied price predictions. The overall mood, influenced by a range of factors, is crucial in understanding the potential trajectory of the market.
Impact of Social Media Trends and News Coverage
Social media trends and news coverage exert a powerful influence on Bitcoin’s price. Positive news, such as endorsements from prominent figures or breakthroughs in blockchain technology, often leads to increased buying pressure and price surges. Conversely, negative news, including regulatory concerns or market corrections, can trigger selling pressure and price drops. The speed and volume of social media interactions can amplify these effects, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop.
News outlets and social media platforms are often the initial source of information that shapes the collective perception of the market, which can directly impact trading behavior and Bitcoin’s price.
Role of Influential Figures in Shaping Public Opinion
Influential figures, including prominent crypto investors, analysts, and personalities, play a critical role in shaping public opinion and influencing trading decisions. Their endorsements, predictions, and commentary can significantly impact the sentiment within the community, generating substantial buying or selling activity. These figures often leverage their platforms to communicate their views and interpretations of market events, contributing to the overall market narrative.
The credibility and track record of these individuals often determine the impact their statements have on public perception and, ultimately, the price of Bitcoin.
Recent Social Media Discussions about Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s future is still uncertain. While there’s hope for a rally, the current market sentiment is mixed. A lot of cautious optimism, but also a healthy dose of skepticism. We need to see some concrete positive catalysts to truly ignite the bull run.
Recent social media discussions highlight a diverse range of opinions. Some users express bullish expectations for a return to higher prices, while others remain cautious, citing past price volatility and current market conditions. The overall tone reflects a cautious optimism, with a clear need for positive market catalysts to drive a significant upward trend.
Potential Catalysts for a Rally
Bitcoin’s journey has been marked by periods of significant volatility. Understanding potential catalysts for a price surge to 100k or beyond requires examining factors beyond the purely technical. While historical trends and technical indicators offer insights, the actual movement depends on external events and shifts in market sentiment. A critical look at these catalysts can illuminate the possible pathways to a substantial Bitcoin price increase.
Regulatory Clarity and Adoption, Bitcoin comes back to life does data support a rally to 100k and higher
Regulatory frameworks play a pivotal role in shaping the cryptocurrency market. The development of clear and supportive regulations can foster wider adoption and trust. This includes legislation that addresses tax implications, security concerns, and investor protection. Uncertainty surrounding regulations often hinders mainstream adoption. A shift towards more favorable and consistent policies could significantly boost investor confidence, potentially driving up Bitcoin’s price.
For example, the introduction of clear regulations in a key market like the US could attract institutional investors and lead to increased demand.
Technological Advancements
Technological advancements are essential for Bitcoin’s long-term growth. Innovations in scaling solutions, such as the Lightning Network, can address transaction bottlenecks, improving usability and accessibility. Enhanced security protocols and the emergence of novel applications, like decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), can expand the use cases for Bitcoin, increasing its demand and potential value. For instance, the development of more efficient payment systems can facilitate broader adoption by businesses and consumers, driving up demand.
Bitcoin’s resurgence has got folks buzzing about a potential rally to $100k and beyond. Looking at compelling landing page examples, like those found at landing page examples , can offer insights into how to effectively capture and retain interest in this volatile market. Ultimately, the data needs to back up this hype for a significant price jump to actually happen.
Mainstream Institutional Adoption
The entry of major financial institutions into the cryptocurrency market is a crucial factor. Large institutional investors, with their substantial capital and resources, can significantly influence the market. If they start integrating Bitcoin into their portfolios, it can increase demand and price. The growing interest in Bitcoin from hedge funds, asset managers, and other institutions suggests a potential catalyst for a price surge.
Examples include large corporations adopting Bitcoin as a payment option or institutional investors incorporating it into their investment strategies.
Macroeconomic Factors
The global economic climate has a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. Periods of economic uncertainty or instability can sometimes lead to increased demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation or as a store of value. Major economic shifts, like currency devaluations or significant inflation, can create a demand for Bitcoin as a safe haven asset. For instance, during times of high inflation, investors may look for alternatives to fiat currencies, potentially driving up the value of Bitcoin.
On-Chain Data Indicators
On-chain data metrics provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s usage and adoption. Factors like the number of active addresses, transaction volume, and the amount of Bitcoin held in different types of wallets can reveal market trends and potential price movements. Analyzing these indicators can help predict future price action and identify potential catalysts for a rally.
Community Sentiment and Market Perception
The perception of Bitcoin within the wider community and the market plays a vital role in its price. Positive sentiment, fueled by media coverage, technological advancements, or positive regulatory developments, can generate a strong upward trend. Increased awareness and positive market perception can drive increased demand and potentially contribute to a rally.
Illustrative Case Studies
Bitcoin’s journey has been marked by periods of dramatic price swings, often driven by a confluence of factors. Examining past rallies provides valuable insights into potential triggers for future movements, helping us to understand the forces that shape the market. By analyzing previous cycles, we can identify recurring themes and patterns that might illuminate the path forward. Analyzing these historical cases is crucial for forming a more informed perspective on Bitcoin’s potential trajectory.Examining past Bitcoin rallies, and the conditions surrounding them, offers valuable context for assessing the current market environment.
Understanding the dynamics that propelled past surges can provide clues as to whether similar conditions might again drive a rally to 100k or beyond. Crucially, these analyses must consider not only price movements but also the underlying factors that influenced those movements.
The 2017 Bull Run
The 2017 bull run saw Bitcoin’s price surge from around $1,000 to over $20,000. Several factors contributed to this remarkable ascent. Increased media attention, a growing interest in cryptocurrency from institutional investors, and a general surge in the interest of investors in cryptocurrencies were key contributors. The development of Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) further fueled investor interest. Furthermore, a general bullish sentiment within the market, along with speculation and the excitement of the early cryptocurrency adoption period, played a major role in this rally.
The 2020 Rally
Bitcoin’s price experienced a notable surge in 2020, reaching a peak in late 2020. A significant contributing factor was the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies during the pandemic, with people exploring new investment avenues. A significant number of institutional investors started looking at Bitcoin, and its use in decentralized finance (DeFi) and other emerging applications became more apparent. The overall macroeconomic backdrop, including the initial stages of the pandemic’s response, influenced market sentiment.
The interplay of these factors resulted in an increase in the demand for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Price Movements: Adoption, Regulation, and Macroeconomic Conditions
Bitcoin’s price fluctuations have been intricately linked to several key factors:
- Adoption: Increased mainstream adoption and usage of Bitcoin often correlate with price increases. This increased use can lead to higher demand, pushing the price upward. When more companies accept Bitcoin as payment, or when Bitcoin’s integration into financial systems expands, it often signifies a broader acceptance of the cryptocurrency, which can translate into increased investment.
- Regulatory Developments: Regulatory clarity or uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin can significantly impact the price. Positive regulatory developments, such as regulatory frameworks that facilitate the adoption of cryptocurrencies, can often lead to price increases, whereas negative regulatory changes or uncertainty can have the opposite effect.
- Macroeconomic Conditions: Global economic events, such as recessions or periods of high inflation, often influence Bitcoin’s price. During times of economic uncertainty or instability, Bitcoin can act as a hedge against traditional assets, attracting investors seeking an alternative investment. This can lead to price appreciation.
Analyzing Historical Price Movements
A detailed examination of Bitcoin’s past price movements reveals distinct patterns. These patterns are influenced by the combination of factors described above.
| Year | Key Events | Impact on Bitcoin Price |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Increased media attention, institutional interest, and ETPs | Significant price increase |
| 2020 | Pandemic-driven adoption, institutional interest, DeFi growth | Price surge |
| 2021 | Increased institutional investment, regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic volatility | Significant price fluctuations |
Epilogue
In conclusion, the potential for Bitcoin to rally to 100k and beyond hinges on a complex interplay of factors. While historical data and technical indicators provide some clues, the unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market necessitates a cautious approach. Ultimately, the future trajectory of Bitcoin will be influenced by a myriad of interconnected events and forces, and careful analysis of all these factors is crucial for anyone looking to invest or speculate in this volatile asset.
The question of whether the data truly supports a 100k rally is a complex one, with no definitive answer, only data-driven speculation.
